Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 14 2020 | 2471 | 26464 | 80 | 9 | 348 | 471 |
| October 15 2020 | 2508 | 26463 | 83 | 9 | 356 | 492 |
| October 16 2020 | 2558 | 26793 | 86 | 9 | 374 | 500 |
| October 17 2020 | 2558 | 26793 | 86 | 9 | 347 | 458 |
| October 18 2020 | 2635 | 27007 | 86 | 9 | 371 | 512 |
| October 19 2020 | 2674 | 27683 | 90 | 9 | 366 | 522 |
| October 20 2020 | 2736 | 27869 | 99 | 11 | 395 | 552 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 1.7 | 3.5% | 14 | 0.12% | 20 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 5.6 | 17.5% | 69 | 0.51% | 103 | 0.76% |
| 20-29 | 12 | 10.4 | 24.6% | 97 | 0.46% | 129 | 0.62% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 5.1 | 12.7% | 50 | 0.37% | 69 | 0.51% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 3.9 | 10.4% | 41 | 0.39% | 63 | 0.6% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 4.0 | 8.6% | 34 | 0.27% | 54 | 0.43% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 5.7 | 12.7% | 50 | 0.43% | 65 | 0.56% |
| 70+ | 8 | 3.9 | 10.1% | 40 | 0.38% | 49 | 0.47% |
| All ages | 62 | 40.3 | 100% | 395 | 0.38% | 552 | 0.53% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 14 2020 | 887 | 16653 | 35 | 1 | 246 | 302 |
| October 15 2020 | 959 | 16759 | 36 | 2 | 310 | 364 |
| October 16 2020 | 1017 | 16871 | 40 | 2 | 350 | 407 |
| October 17 2020 | 1017 | 16871 | 40 | 2 | 319 | 387 |
| October 18 2020 | 1032 | 16975 | 42 | 2 | 302 | 391 |
| October 19 2020 | 1124 | 17459 | 43 | 5 | 361 | 475 |
| October 20 2020 | 1130 | 17583 | 48 | 6 | 343 | 463 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.9% | 10 | 0.13% | 13 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 3.6 | 9% | 31 | 0.37% | 36 | 0.43% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 7.4 | 19.8% | 68 | 0.96% | 88 | 1.24% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 5.4 | 14.6% | 50 | 0.59% | 70 | 0.83% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 5.9 | 15.2% | 52 | 0.67% | 77 | 0.99% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 7.1 | 17.5% | 60 | 0.62% | 80 | 0.82% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 4.1 | 10.8% | 37 | 0.44% | 49 | 0.58% |
| 70+ | 0 | 4.6 | 11.4% | 39 | 0.55% | 52 | 0.73% |
| All ages | 6 | 38.7 | 100% | 343 | 0.53% | 463 | 0.72% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 14 2020 | 678 | 10225 | 32 | 6 | 156 | 188 |
| October 15 2020 | 701 | 10313 | 34 | 6 | 179 | 203 |
| October 16 2020 | 730 | 10363 | 34 | 6 | 202 | 226 |
| October 17 2020 | 730 | 10363 | 34 | 6 | 195 | 214 |
| October 18 2020 | 781 | 11006 | 35 | 6 | 228 | 259 |
| October 19 2020 | 803 | 11335 | 35 | 6 | 228 | 281 |
| October 20 2020 | 827 | 11393 | 35 | 6 | 229 | 299 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 14 2020 | 3605 | 28946 | 67 | 11 | 306 | 475 |
| October 15 2020 | 3657 | 29008 | 71 | 11 | 321 | 452 |
| October 16 2020 | 3718 | 29103 | 72 | 12 | 345 | 473 |
| October 17 2020 | 3718 | 29103 | 72 | 12 | 319 | 434 |
| October 18 2020 | 3758 | 30277 | 75 | 15 | 317 | 459 |
| October 19 2020 | 3817 | 30695 | 77 | 15 | 331 | 481 |
| October 20 2020 | 3868 | 30854 | 78 | 15 | 352 | 495 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.6% | 9 | 0.08% | 13 | 0.11% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 4.4 | 12.5% | 44 | 0.27% | 63 | 0.38% |
| 20-29 | 12 | 10.9 | 26.4% | 93 | 0.44% | 132 | 0.62% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 4.7 | 13.1% | 46 | 0.34% | 60 | 0.44% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 5.7 | 13.9% | 49 | 0.36% | 61 | 0.45% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 5.3 | 11.4% | 40 | 0.28% | 60 | 0.42% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 4.9 | 12.5% | 44 | 0.31% | 63 | 0.44% |
| 70+ | 5 | 3.0 | 7.7% | 27 | 0.21% | 43 | 0.33% |
| All ages | 51 | 40.1 | 100% | 352 | 0.3% | 495 | 0.42% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 14 2020 | 11855 | 211170 | 444 | 46 | 1403 | 1726 |
| October 15 2020 | 12072 | 212443 | 450 | 46 | 1558 | 1871 |
| October 16 2020 | 12296 | 214057 | 450 | 46 | 1625 | 2079 |
| October 17 2020 | 12296 | 214057 | 450 | 46 | 1562 | 1957 |
| October 18 2020 | 12509 | 223923 | 456 | 46 | 1668 | 2057 |
| October 19 2020 | 12516 | 228420 | 463 | 46 | 1481 | 2002 |
| October 20 2020 | 12821 | 229152 | 468 | 46 | 1581 | 2150 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 12 | 7.7 | 4.7% | 74 | 0.12% | 103 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 35 | 21.1 | 13% | 206 | 0.29% | 302 | 0.42% |
| 20-29 | 82 | 37.6 | 23% | 363 | 0.35% | 497 | 0.48% |
| 30-39 | 45 | 26.9 | 16.8% | 265 | 0.35% | 351 | 0.46% |
| 40-49 | 52 | 24.7 | 15.2% | 240 | 0.37% | 320 | 0.49% |
| 50-59 | 38 | 21.1 | 13.2% | 209 | 0.32% | 276 | 0.42% |
| 60-69 | 28 | 14.7 | 9.6% | 151 | 0.28% | 196 | 0.36% |
| 70+ | 13 | 7.3 | 4.6% | 73 | 0.15% | 105 | 0.21% |
| All ages | 305 | 161.1 | 100% | 1581 | 0.29% | 2150 | 0.39% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 14 2020 | 158578 | 1568389 | 8754 | 1536 | 25915 | 36304 |
| October 15 2020 | 162325 | 1579844 | 8892 | 1553 | 27966 | 37164 |
| October 16 2020 | 166186 | 1590569 | 9027 | 1574 | 29807 | 38280 |
| October 17 2020 | 166186 | 1590569 | 9027 | 1574 | 27488 | 35388 |
| October 18 2020 | 170114 | 1665459 | 9154 | 1588 | 28284 | 37451 |
| October 19 2020 | 173891 | 1703813 | 9319 | 1600 | 29073 | 39532 |
| October 20 2020 | 178482 | 1712883 | 9537 | 1633 | 30922 | 42103 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 180 | 118.9 | 3.5% | 1095 | 0.17% | 1457 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 405 | 308.1 | 9.4% | 2909 | 0.38% | 3951 | 0.52% |
| 20-29 | 775 | 562.1 | 17.1% | 5289 | 0.7% | 7281 | 0.96% |
| 30-39 | 746 | 532.4 | 16.1% | 4985 | 0.66% | 6777 | 0.9% |
| 40-49 | 669 | 477.3 | 14.5% | 4498 | 0.64% | 6208 | 0.89% |
| 50-59 | 721 | 556.7 | 17% | 5258 | 0.65% | 7049 | 0.86% |
| 60-69 | 567 | 395.0 | 12% | 3721 | 0.49% | 5117 | 0.68% |
| 70+ | 528 | 336.7 | 10.2% | 3167 | 0.49% | 4263 | 0.67% |
| All ages | 4591 | 3287.3 | 100% | 30922 | 0.53% | 42103 | 0.72% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52.7 | 75.7 | 61.6 | 40.3 | 35.7 | 15.5% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71.6 | 38.7 | 21.9 | 20.6% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66.1 | 26 | 10.1 | 10.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41.9 | 38.1 | 62 | 40.1 | 34.4 | 12% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39.3 | 42.5 | 47.8 | 161.1 | 116.9 | 5.6% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72.3 | 52.2 | 96.2 | 3287.3 | 2416 | 12.9% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 16.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.38 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-10 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1758"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges